Research

Abstract: We aim to reconcile divergent estimates of the returns to rural-urban migration in developing countries by explicitly accounting for heterogeneity and self-selection. We use longitudinal data from four countries—Indonesia, South Africa, China, and Tanzania—where we observe the location choices and labor outcomes of tens of thousands of adults over multiple periods. We model self-selection into migration in a multi-period Roy model that incorporates worker heterogeneity in both absolute and comparative advantage and estimate a correlated random coefficient model that considers both types of heterogeneity. This model lets us extrapolate the returns identified from switcher sub-populations to non-switchers—a group of particular interest to policymakers deciding whether to encourage migration as a development strategy. Our results show considerable heterogeneity in the returns to migration and a clear relationship between absolute and comparative advantage across countries: those with the lowest productivity in rural areas stand most to gain from migrating. This suggests that migration is a pro-poor strategy but that barriers to migration may prevent workers from realizing their potential. Individuals appear to be inefficiently sorted across space; therefore, encouraging migration could lead to large returns.

Abstract: Unanticipated shocks threaten household welfare when consumption smoothing fails. We examine and compare how households cope with two different forms of shocks, idiosyncratic health shocks and covariate rainfall shocks, and assess how pass through of economic losses and activation of informal insurance networks and other coping strategies respond differently to each. Using all five waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we find that both generate substantial income losses, but, in line with our model, their consumption effects diverge. Health shocks pass through to consumption at low rates, with kin transfers and asset liquidation appearing to provide partial insurance. Rainfall shocks, by contrast, pass through almost completely to consumption, as correlated shock exposure simultaneously depletes network resources and constrains asset markets.

Abstract: Female labor force participation in Egypt remains persistently low despite rising female educational attainment. This project will evaluate whether social media can serve as a scalable, low-cost channel to increase female labor force participation by reducing information frictions about job opportunities and correcting misperceived social norms about women working. Our preliminary survey reveals a large gap between women’s own views and their perception of other women’s views: while most respondents support women’s right to work, they believe that other women in their community hold more conservative views, a pattern known as “pluralistic ignorance.” We will implement a randomized controlled trial with 3,000 women organized into 600 WhatsApp groups of socially connected women, formed by local facilitators and randomly assigned to one of three arms: (i) Control: group formation only; (ii) Treatment 1: group formation plus weekly job vacancies; or (iii) Treatment 2: group formation plus weekly job vacancies and belief-correction messages conveying accurate information about community support for women’s work. The design uses WhatsApp’s combination of vertical information delivery and horizontal peer interaction to estimate the effects of vacancy information and belief correction on beliefs, job applications, and job take-up. We will also estimate effects on intra-household decision-making and psychosocial well-being, and use large language models to analyze the WhatsApp conversations to study mechanisms.

Abstract: There are many reasons why people migrate, and different motivations may lead to different types of migration. I study the choice to migrate within a developing country, where people may face substantial risk and liquidity constraints. On the one hand, migration can be used as an ex-post risk-coping strategy after sudden negative income shocks. On the other hand, migration can be seen an as investment, but liquidity constraints may prevent households from paying up-front migration costs, in which case positive income shocks may increase migration. I model these diverging migratory responses to shocks in a dynamic migration choice model that I test using a 28-year panel of internal migration decisions by more than 45,000 individuals in Indonesia. I document evidence that migration increases after contemporaneous negative income shocks as well as after an accumulation of preceding positive shocks. Consistent with the model, migration after negative shocks is more often characterized by temporary moves to nearby, rural destinations, while migration as an investment strategy is more likely to involve urban destinations and take place over longer durations and distances.